RATIONALE

1. What will happen if nothing is done?

If nothing is done, the goats will increase to a maximum estimated population size of about 500,000. They will spread to all parts of Northern Isabela and will continue to transform species rich old-growth forests into relatively barren grasslands. The loss of forest cover over the steep volcanic slopes is expected to cause unprecedented levels of erosion, as large herds move up and down the bare land, further removing the protective grasses. Precious soil, hundreds of thousands of years in the making, will be permanently lost in a matter of decades as heavy El Niño rains wash them away.

Tortoises will have fewer nesting sites available and will be increasingly out-competed in grazing by the more agile and versatile goats. Microclimates critical to tortoise survival (drip pools under summit forests, humid soils) will be altered, increasing biological stress levels on tortoises. Other endemic animals, birds, insects and plants are likely to suffer equally. Finally, as the goats' population size grows beyond the island's capacity to support them, the goat population will crash, most probably during a prolonged post El Niño drought event, with many animals expected to die from thirst and starvation and disease. Goat populations would then stabilize at a lower number, leaving behind a ravaged northern Isabela island and the probable extinction of various species of plants and animals, and very little potential for original ecosystems to recuperate even if the goats were to be removed subsequently.

2. Why not wait until later to deal with this problem?

The goat population on northern Isabela has not reached its maximum level yet. Many parts of the island are still relatively unaffected, as goats have only recently arrived. Their population has not had the chance to reach the area's maximum carrying capacity. By acting as soon as possible, we will be ensuring the protection of relatively undisturbed parts of the island. Also, as numbers are increasingly rapidly, the sooner we begin, the easier it will be to complete the project.

3. Why was the situation allowed to become critical before action was taken?

The goats were first seen in the mid '70s in small numbers. At that stage, no one suspected how quickly the population would grow and to what extent they would cause problems. When the extent of the disaster became apparent in the early 1990's, small-scale control hunts were organized. Since 1996 larger scale hunts have been organized on a regular basis, focusing specifically on the south rim of Alcedo volcano, where giant tortoise habitat is particularly threatened.

Organizing an eradication campaign on this scale takes a tremendous amount of logistical support, financial resources and organizational know-how. It is only in the past few years that the Charles Darwin Research Station and the Galapagos National Park have been able to assemble the proper elements required to undertake such an effort.

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